I had enough of these debates and arguments. So I am simply documenting them. My thought process with them and the facts associated with them wherever available. I am just asking for a little justice, some fair assessment of things. You don't have to vote for a man, but give the devil his due. That's all this is about, giving the so called devil his due.
Annual Economic Growth Rate
from UNs regional commission development update in July 2001, "Africa made significant economic progress in the 1990s, with several countries sustaining double-digit growth. " Kenya meanwhile recorded a negative 0.3% growth rate.The same article also adds that "The new leadership will have the opportunity to restore public confidence and promote economic growth." Whether that has happened or not, I'll leave you to judge. To further make my point, "Africa's average gross domestic product (GDP) growth of more than 4 percent in 2001..." Compare that with -0.3.However, be aware that there are things that are simple fact. That while Africa is now at an average growth rate of about 6%, Kenya is right about there, actually slightly above average. So that the economic growth rate is in fact what is Africa's current economic growth rate, does not mean that there has not been any progress here done by Kibaki's government. It would be stupid and inaccurate to conclude that.
Corruption/Anglo Leasing
Let's now address Anglo Leasing. Why do I address this under corruption? It's because it's the only example I am getting from people when they accuse this government of corruption and I ask for specifics. That it has been turned into a Kibaki administration issue is interesting and thought provoking. Here is the story of the origin of the Anglo leasing scandal. This comes from the Mars group, a group whose tactics I have learnt to absolutely disagree with. That a story for another day. My point being that Anglo leasing was done, rushed and finalized before the elections of 2002. It is thus inherited. Meaning the blame cannot be transferred to Kibaki's government. So the people have not been brought to book yet. There has been a lot of finger pointing, true. But no real hard evidence to convict has been provided. The one good shot was Githongo's dossier. But he chose to deliver it to a foreign government, despite the fact that its research was paid for by the Taxpayers shilling. Point is a dossier in the hands of a foreign government is of no use to Kenya and does not enable our courts to convict. And the whole idea of thinking Britain in better than Kenya so run there, Screw that! That's what we're trying to get away from. I haven't met the supernatural Briton or foreign person either. If it can be done right in Britain, it can be done right in Kenya. Running to Britain for cover was stupid, bore him no fruits, stonewalled an investigation and seriously, what did he think they would do? Send Clay to remove the splinters in our eyes, altogether ignoring the logs in theirs as usual? My point is Anglo leasing is not a this generation scandal. The drama perpetrated by Githongo was no help to the issue either. And any promises any other person is making in regards to this issue are not well thought out and are lies. The only way to convict this people is without fair trial and would be dictatorial. To follow the law is to concede that this is a very difficult case to win ina court of law, where the accused can afford good representation. I'll stop here, this topic can cover a small book. Fact is as far as the law goes, they are free until someone can bring in evidence. Face it and move on, let our future be the difference.
Planning and management or lucky break?
What about economic growth generally? I've been advised to "stop worshipping" what Kibaki "has done". The benefits of this came from the Kenyans in the diaspora. Really? So Kenyans went abroad only some 4-5 years back? Or is that when Western Union started sending money to Kenya? I mean how do we come up with this? Are you suggesting there was no foreign currency coming into Kenya before Kibaki's government took over? Is that a logical and educated suggestion? The economy... here are some facts. Collection of funds. KRA. What milestones has that taken? How much better effective is their collection all arranged and organized and funded by the current government? It takes a person who understand that it takes money to get work done, and who knows to tackle the root cause to get this achieved. There are other solutions, such as sucking up to rich foreign governments so that they would give us aid. But that just makes us puppets who are fed just well enough not to die, but not enough to put up a fight should we need to. If nothing else, this is single handedly the most effective most important thing this government ever did. It is the only first right step that existed. And the execution has been nearly perfect. Yes, people have complained and whined intermittently throughout this process, but that is because people resist paying taxes. It doesn't make them right. And this my countrymen is the root cause of progressive development. Then other factors have played in, such as ministries with assigned goals, ministers who know that they will have to earn their dismissal and no longer have to wake up reading papers to check if they were fired last night as was the previous regimes ministerial situation; leaving room for confident planning, implementation, execution and tracking of goals. The CDF kitty, that one tells you what your local representatives are doing for you. And so you can decode who to vote back in. This should be your measure of whether you need local leadership changes or not.
"Kibaki has a stroke. he's totally handicapped." Think about this statement. Play it over in your mind. Analyze it. I'm not sure I should comment on this. I have a healthy respect for the privacy of medical records. But what do we know about strokes that are totally debilitating? Seriously. Kibaki couldn't move his arm well after a road accident. An explanation was offered for it as a badly handled surgery and he had local surgery, which obviously fixed the problem. So logical. And let's face it, no surgery could fix a stroke induced immobility, simply because that would be about the brain triggers. Yet this stroke rumor continues. It reminds me of the republicans as they are sending e-mails now. "Barack is a Muslim", they say. they will lose him his popularity this way. he had to be handled because he had republicans considering a democratic vote. Look into the similarities of these tactics, their unfairness, their pettiness, their absolute absurdity and then decide to know what you believe form that. Kenyans you're smart people. There's a healthy respect for just how smart you all are internationally. Just start acting like it when it comes to situations like these. And on that note, has anyone bothered to note that Kibaki struggles with expression only when speaking in Swahili? Common sense my people. he's not good with Swahili. It is not a stroke! Listen to him when he speaks English and allow yourself constructive though process.
Other stuff
No one is arguing with me about the payment of farmers being a good thing. Yet, most people ignore the overall effects of this. In a nutshell, the development of rural areas begins here. There will now be an increased demand for goods and services from the farmers as they have disposable income and hence supermarkets and eventually malls and all sorts of trading will have to move closer to the demand. It's that simple. the beauty is in its simplicity. And if Kenyans are to be smart, there should be a migration of sorts back to the farms because they are now profitable "centers", more like fields and spaces. Which would lead me to an attitude I notice amongst Kenyans that I have narrowed down to "fickle mindedness". What I mean is simply this, the people who are now currently farming as young people, have almost all studied outside of Kenya for further studies. They are the only ones who can proudly declare themselves farmers as their "what do you do" response; and not care about the crazy looks they get from their peers. Think about it people. It may not be an easy pill to swallow but if we can't discuss the facts, then we can't help each other. But all that another story, for another day.
What about primary school education? That it's now absolutely free. Recall how opposed this was when Kibaki first announced it? It will be difficult to implement, the skeptics said amongst other things. Who said difficult means do not push ahead with it. How about a simple pros and cons assessment. every year delayed in implementing free primary education would have meant scores of students late for primary education entry. And the same skeptics were screaming, free secondary education a few years down the road?
Health care. By no means perfect. But what leaps and bounds I ask? How much better are the local dispensaries doing? Answer these questions to yourself honestly. The Nairobi Stock exchange and the provisions that have been given it to allow growth. I could go on. And by no means am I citing perfect governance. I am however acknowledging leaps and bounds in progress. And truly choosing to understand that it cannot all be done in 5 years. Neither will it all be done in the next 5 regardless of whom the throne will belong to. It's a process and we as Kenyans need to learn how to measure milestones and keep things in perspective.
In a previous post, I gave simple litmus tests for critical thinking. Let me say I cannot overemphasize the importance of critical thought process. No matter what you decide, let it be under these circumstances, a conclusion of fact assessment, within context, with common sense exercised and devoid of emotion. Just pure thought and logical infusion and totally and completely grounded by facts and not speculation. It calls for invested interest and work in fact finding from everyone but if you are to comment and have an opinion on something, don't you owe it to yourself as a smart person to know all there is to know about it?
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9 comments:
At the risk of sounding redundant, I say we let the wananchi declare their confidence or lack-thereof in Mr. Kibaki's administration, at the ballot box. Sources close to the ground inform me that Kibaki is toast. I wish him peaceful retirement as Kenyans decide to try an alternative approach.
Mimiz: You are one of the few Kenyans who gets it, who can maturely analyze the state of our country with no emotions but hard facts and with such finesse that I would vote for you if you were vying for a seat .You are one one of the very few bloggers who says as it should be said with no malice or what Moi used to call :CHUKI"
Thank you and I wish there many more of Kenyans like you who can be objective. I do not just say this because of this post but the many you have written before that are truly worht reading.
I just hope Kenyans will use common sense not instant gratification to Vote for the best man(in govt or opposition) who will continue to take us to great heights and make Kenyan the giant it should be in Africa.
Irena: Wow! Thanks for your very heartwarming comment. It's very gratifying when someone gets exactly waht I'm trying to put forth and in so doing what it is I am about. Oh, and I will be sure to send you a note should I ever decide to run for a seat somehwere!
Thomas: You're reiterating what I said. let the people decide. I'm just begging that the people be fair in their assessment, apply critical thought an dnot biased and honestly, unintelligent utterances to back up their choices. I noticed very much that not you nor anyone else dared to argue with teh facts I put forth. I'm guessing it's beacause they are evidently facts. I emphasize again, critical thought process.
I dare to say this confidently; should Kibaki lose this elections, it won't be his loss. And if history is ever to be docmented fairly, Kibaki has a fond and special place in those books! His legend is already sealed. In 5 short years. That's quite an achievement for anyone.
if this elections waa about issue kibaki would win landslide.. unfortunately its not and it will not......
Mimmz,
Its obvious you have made up your mind. I certainly
1. dont think great things are happening under Kibaki.
2. dont think that Kenyans should let him go on doing whatever it is he is doing in State House.
3. think Othaya people are certainly within their rights to elect him their MP. Only they are better suited to know whats good for Othaya and outsiders should not impose anyone on them.
4. think if people in Central seem to love him that much, they are free to have him as head of their Jimbo, and let him continue doing whatever it is he was doing in State House in his Jimbo.
5. think that other regions within Kenya are entitled to choose who their leaders and laws. Leaders should not come in the form of appointments from an oligarchy in Nairobi. In this scenario, regions will not be at the mercy of a corrupt elite in Nairobi. If Wajir has little tolerance for corruption, it should not suffer because the center fully embraces it.
I think Kenyans should vote for Raila because he is the only with a realistic chance and any interest in changing the ways of Nairobi.
The ODM avalanche seems to have hit its anti climax after the goodwill that it enjoyed immediately after Ruto and Magara were regrettably manhandled in Kisii. This goodwill was later transferred to the Rift Valley during that massive rally before culminating into a crescendo at Uhuru park where Kenya witnessed a wave of humanity like no other.
Right now, the crest of the ODM wave seems to have reached a plateau and this couldn't have been made worse than by a gaffe from their leader regarding majimbo.
To begin with, majimbo is a subject that needs sober, detailed analysis and in my view, a referendum. Most people are opposed to it according to Steadman polls irrespective of their political leanings and this strikes a delicate chord of uncertainty for the so called pentagon.
Raila Odinga, an engineer by profession and an intelligent man I might add, is trying to confuse the masses by conflating two words or terms; Majimbo (federalism) and devolution.
Kalonzo, apparently the wiser of the two as far as this issue goes is being cautious and only advocates for economic majimbo whatever that means but it is Raila's attempt at pitting 41 against 1 or if you like, 38 against 3 (GEMA) that has led to his current stagnation.
Politicians thrive on the masses' ignorance or apathy. Raila's disciples, and this is a fact, don't have a lot of regard for facts and data. They don't seek the finer details. They care less about how certain programmes will be attained or funded. When Raila says that 60% (forgive me if I got the figure wrong) of the nation's revenue will go to CDF under majimbo instead of the current 2.5%, they don't ask what programmes will be traded off if we have to achieve this. WHere will we get other monies for other programmes? Is 40% of our revenue enough for education,, defence, salaries and all other recurrent as well as development expenditure?
If we (our MPs that is) don't even utilise the kshs. 30 million annual share of CDF per constituency which is always repartriated back to the treasury, how about 1 BILLION? (60% OF 400 BILLION IS 240 BILLION.) Each constituency under Raila would therefore get 1 Billion kshs. in terms of CDF. Correct me if I am wrong.
Raila shoots from the hip and that is his strength as well as his undoing. After arguing that the NSE was being fueled by drugs money, and after Minister Kimunya told him (regardless of whether this was true or not) that his callous, careless and uninformed utterances had led to the loss of Billions at the bourse, he rushed to the mart to try and plug the holes but that was too little too late. The Kenyan investor is with Kibaki lock, stock and barrel.
ODM, like someone so aptly put it in her vernacular here in Mashada is like a bonfire made out of chaff or husks. It glows abruptly and the sparks fly all over before dying out fast. We'll probably be seeing the embers of that fire in the next month. I DON'T SEE THE ODM WAVE COMING ANYWHERE CLOSE TO WHERE IT WAS 3 WEEKS AGO.
In the meantime, Kibaki's steady hand is guiding PNU. He's been criss crossing the RIft Valley with great success and kama ninavyosema mara kwa mara, Kibaki doesn't need to get a majority of the votes in the areas where ODM is excelling. Not that he doesn't need every vote, but mathematically, he needs to pilfer a sizeable chunk of votes from ODM and ODM-K to add to his votes and emerge with a majority of the popular vote. That is why the president is so confident and from his campaigns, he is on course.
Raila is someone who is prone to goofing. A few days ago, he went to of all places Othaya to urge the peasants there not to re-elect Kibaki. What fallacy! That was a waste of time and if he doesn't know it, he needs better advisers. His Meru trip, regrettably as things turned out, would be a better bet but even then, it was made more out of proving a point rather than value ( to be derived from such a visit).
The government also had its wits around it by ensuring that he (Raila) was able to spread his porojo by the government warding off hecklers failure to which he'd have tried to capitalise on the fact that PNU had prevented him from campaigning in Kibaki's stronghold. This would have been followed by a press conference from his party and the diplomats accredited to the country and doesn't Raila love this!
It didn't pan out as Raila would have loved and no wonder we didn't see him after Meru. He's still strategising on the best way to remain in the headlines.
As the majimbo debate rages, ODM has embarked on trashing the Cardinal. The pentagon fell short of saying that the Catholic church was supportin g Kibaki and PNU but they went as far as saying that their statement would be construed to mean that they were partisan.
Today, the PCEA and the Anglican churches have added their voices but at least they haven't signed any MOU with Kibaki. I wonder whether Raila signed any MOU with a certain religious organisation and if so, what his explanation of it would be.
Kibaki has stemmed the tide of defectors who see nothing but their stomachs with one stroke of a pen. ODM's great expectations of defecting ministers hit a political cul de sac because Kibaki caught them napping. All they wanted was for Kibaki to dissolve parliament in order for them to reap massively now that they were leading in the polls but the genius of Kibaki was too much for the Ordinary Docile Movement. Politicians will be agonising after the party nominations about their future and in my view, this is very healthy for our country.
I have said it here and I'll repeat; Kibaki is winning this election hands down. Someone remind me this on December 29th. I'll be in Kenya and I am going to vote for Kibaki.
WE need 5 more years of stability and growth with Kibaki.
Not so fast anonymous. Time is up for rationalizing mis-rule by sanitized mobsters as Kenyans are increasingly realizing. You can pontificate all you want about Kibaki, but Wanjiku has seen enough and wants out. She has heard all the propaganda about GDP, increased revenue collection etc, but when she goes out she knows:
1. There is no infrastructure to get her produce to market(especially if she lives outside Central Province).
2. The cost of living is sky-rocketting and basic commodities increasingly out of reach.
3. Odinga is talking about these things, Kibaki sees no need for change. This is a very important reason why Kibaki cannot win and is now clasping at straws and toying with the dangerous idea of rigging the election.
Kibaki's lack of control is glaringly obvious as the current campaign and disorganization of his team illustrate.
How do you arrive at the conclusion that Raila is attempting to pit 41 tribes against 1? Being big on specifics you should be able to support that wild allegation.
Majimbo as espoused in the Bomas draft is supported by most Kenyans. I will go on a limb and say that the Majimbo you have in mind has something to do with tribes, in which case we are talking about different things. Majimbo is not CDF. Its obvious you need to be appraised of this basic fact. CDF has nothing to do with self-government for the regions. Majimbo should effectively replace the hand-picked provincial administration with elected representatives in a nut-shell. Will this cost money, hell yeah. Will this affect Central government projects? Of course. That is the whole point. Central government should take a back-seat from involvement in every nook and crany of people's affairs.
When it comes to goofing again you have your head up your posterior and as a result foolishly reverse roles. There is no worse goof at this time in Kenya than Kibaki sending Daniel Moi, Michuki, Njenga Karume and Lucy Kibaki to campaign on his behalf. These creepy characters are not going to win him votes, other than in Central, where it is already decided. Of course it goes without saying that Raila's campaign is way more organized and effective than anything Kibaki has so far shown he is capable of(even with the misuse of state resources).
As for Mr. Njue the archbishop, it is apparent he supports Kibaki and was at pains to appear neutral on the issue even though he had already spilled the githeri. The Catholic Church is clearly divided on majimbo as Bishop Okoth's rebuttal of the so-called Church position proves.
Talking of MOU's why would you worry if Raila signed any with a religious organization? This is remarkable coming from a supporter and believer in a man who has not seen a MOU he did not want to trash. Or is this just part of the fear-mongering that has reached ridiculous levels, for lack of anything substantial to sell to the electorate?
As far as defections go, there are not many aces left in Kibaki's camp that ODM needs. PNU is destined to lose in a bad way and my only concern is their willingness to hand over power. I also worry about a possible ODM landslide and what that would do to the multi-party system in Kenya. PNU and ODM-K will need to win a decent number of parliamentary seats outside of Central and Eastern provinces(being regional parties) to present a credible opposition. Hopefully your vote goes towards attaining this semblance of parity.
@Thomas, your arguments are taking as back to tribalistic unsupported views, the exact thing I was addressing in my original post. Specifically, when you mention that "there is no infrastructure... especially if she lives outside central province" you are making an accusation that Kibaki has been developing infrastructure in central province and not other areas. I dare you to support this falsehood with any factual evidence you can find. If you want to argue about infrastructure as it is now, as compared to how it was then, if you're going to be honest, you're going to thank someone, anyone for starting a good work, that hopefully will be continuing. if you're arguing that it's not up to par yet, we all know that, but we have to start somewhere and the point is that we have started and are progressing at a good rate, given resources, to include money, equipment and trained personell. All your arguments, I could break down this way. Instead of using up space here, I challenge you to provide tangible evidence for any incinuation or else dare to admit that your expectations are unrealistic and your distase for kibaki is based on tribalistic views you hold.
Again, I am not asking anyone to change anything, not even ytribalistic views, you are who you are and I would rather you didn't pretend to love your neighbors as thyself. My point is for everyone to dare to deal with themselves honestly, and continue bashing the development that has occurred, but with the full knowledge that they are outside the truth and are fueled by their own insecurities and flawed perceptions.
With that, on to other posts... but feel free to express yourself continually on this topic.
Mimmz,
You can't be serious calling me a tribalist, unless anybody that misses Kibaki's "big points" must be a tribalist.
As far as infrastructure, I will tell you that people I know in Kenya who frequently travel from Nairobi to Western province tell me that the roads have in fact become worse during Kibaki's tenure. I found that hard to believe initially but I know people in Chicago who were there a few months ago and they concur with that. Perhaps they are tribalists and are viewing it through a tribal lens. I hardly think one needs a committee to verify this anyhow. Its easy to tell even from the way politicians generally would rather fly around in choppers than drive even short distances.
Now my beef with infrastructure is because it goes to the heart of economic development. If the roads in Sondu Bay are pathetic, the options to market whatever can be produced in Sondu Bay are naturally constrained by this fact.
Frankly most people I talk to in Kenya think Kibaki is not good for Kenya. Most wouldn't have any beef with his rampant tribalism if there were results worth writing home about. Instead he is alienating Kenyans and causing unnecessary ethnic tensions. The sooner he goes the better for Kenya. Very few incumbents have ever faced Kibaki's current ignoble position of being uniformly rejected in practically all corners of the country. Even Moi never attained such a low rung.
My other beef is insecurity. We all know about Mungiki, SLDF among many others. All these atrocities have been left to escalate beyond acceptable levels before government acts. This could be the unfortunate result of Kibaki's hands off, ears off, eyes off style of governing. Its gotten so bad, that even in shags you have to be home by a certain time just to be safe. This only used to be an issue in Nairobi and its environs.
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